![]() ![]() Therefore, we can’t deny that a recession, or at least a soft landing, appears to be around the corner and investors would do well to be prepared for it. While the job situation is not bad and employment remains at historic lows, wage growth is moderating. Therefore, consumer spending could be slowing down. Ecommerce appears to be a relatively bright spot. While it grew a dismal 0.3% in May, there’s a good chance of its slowing in the coming months. Retail sales growth has been negative in two of the last five quarters. ![]() Agriculture and construction have been particularly weak, with mining, transport and services seeing relative strength. The GDP growth rate has languished in the last four-five quarters, staying well below 2% in each of the last four. While there are a lot of ups and downs in these graphs, these declines further strengthen the thesis that investors are growing nervous. Similarly, the Nasdaq is down over 15% from its highest point. The S&P 500 for instance is down around 8% from its highest point in the last five years. They’re also watching market performance. It has also preceded every recession in the past 50 years. This indicates that investors anticipate increased uncertainty in the near term, and is a sign of falling investor confidence. One is the inversion of the yield curve - when the yield on short-term treasury bonds exceeds the yield on long-term treasury bonds. And these sounds have been growing louder ever since the Fed’s commentary that further rate hikes should not be ruled out. Market watchers have been pointing to various signs that indicate a recession is unavoidable.
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